4 absolute expert picks for Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, more

4 absolute expert picks for Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, more

Click the arrow to expand 2022 PGA Championship odds via PointsBet

2022 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Odds
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Jon Rahm +1300
Justin Thomas +1400
Rory McIlroy +1600
Jordan Spieth +1700
Collin Morikawa +2000
Patrick Canlay +2200
Cameron Smith +2200
Dustin Johnson +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Victor Hovland +2500
Xander Schauele +2500
Shane Lowry +3000
Will Zalatoris +3300
Brooks Koepka +4000
Joaquin Niemann +4000
Sam Burns +4500
Corey Conners +5000
Daniel Berger +5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Max Homa +6000
Louis Oosthuizen +6600
Tyrrell Hatton +6600
Adam Scott +7000
Jason Day +7000
Tiger Woods +7000
Tommy Fleetwood +7000
Cameron Young +8000
Billy Horschel +9000
Bryson De Chambeau +9000
Keegan Bradley +9000
Abraham Ancer +10000
Jason Kokrak +10000
Russell Henley +10000
Seamus Power +10000
Talor Gooch +10000
Champion Cameron +12500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Harold Varner III +12500
Justin Rose +12500
Marc Leishman +12500
Maverick McNealy +12500
Patrick Roseau +12500
Sebastien Munoz +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Thomas Peter +12500
webb simpson +12500
Aaron Sage +15000
Alexander Noren +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +15000
Robert MacIntyre +15000
If Woo Kim +15000
Matthew Wolff +17500
Ricky Fowler +17500
Tom Hoge +17500
Adam Hadvin +20000
Brian Harman +20000
Bubba Watson +20000
Charles Schwartzel +20000
Chris Kirk +20000
Erik Van Rooyen +20000
Ian Poulter +20000
jhonattan vegas +20000
Keith Mitchell +20000
Kevin Kisner +20000
Kevin Na +20000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +20000
List of Luke +20000
matt jones +20000
ryan palm tree +20000
Sepp Straka +20000
Joel Dahmen +20000
Anirban Lahiri +25000
Bernd Wiesberger +25000
Cameron Davis +25000
JJ Spaun +25000
Joo Hyung Kim +25000
Lanto Griffon +25000
Russell Knox +25000
Sam Horsfield +25000
Troy Merrit +25000
Branden Grace +30000
Brendan Steele +30000
Francesco Molinari +30000
Justin Harding +30000
Laurie Canter +30000
Lee Westwood +30000
Min Woo Lee +30000
Pablo Larrazabal +30000
Ryan Fox +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Scott Stallings +30000
Cameron Tringale +35000
carlos ortiz +35000
Lucas Herbert +35000
Mackenzie Hughes +35000
Olivier Becker +35000
Patton Kizzire +35000
Adam Schenk +40000
Adri Arnaus +40000
Chad Ramey +40000
Dean Burmester +40000
Kevin Strelman +40000
Nicolai Hoejgaard +40000
Rikuya Hoshino +40000
Alex’s Beach +50000
Alex Cejka +50000
Austin injured +50000
Handsome Hossler +50000
Bio Kim +50000
brandon bingaman +50000
Casey Pyne +50000
Chan Kim +50000
Colin Inglis +50000
Danie van Tonder +50000
Dylan Newman +50000
Garrick Higo +50000
Harry Higg +50000
Henrik Stenson +50000
Hudson Swafford +50000
JaredJones +50000
Jason Dufner +50000
Jesse Muller +50000
Jinichiro Kozuma +50000
John Daly +50000
Kramer Hickok +50000
Kyle Mendoza +50000
Martin Kaymer +50000
Matthew Borchert +50000
Michael Block +50000
Nic Ishee +50000
Padraig Harrington +50000
Paul Dickinson +50000
Beem rich +50000
Richard Bland +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Ryan Vermeer +50000
Ryōsuke Kinoshita +50000
Sadom Kaewkanjana +50000
Sean McCarty +50000
Shaun Michael +50000
Shaun Norris +50000
Shawn Warren +50000
Takumi Kanaya +50000
Tim Feenstra +50000
Tyler Collet +50000
Wyatt Worthington +50000
Yong Eun Yang +50000

Not much to report from Bryon Nelson. All bets have stood, but none have ever been in contention. Davis Riley gave a brief glimpse of hope he could backdoor into the top five, but calmed down on the back nine and finished 9th.

We now enter the second major of the season with Southern Hills set to host the PGA Championship.

This is the first time we’ve seen the PGA on this site in 15 years. Last time it was here, Tiger Woods held off Woody Austin and Ernie Els to claim the title.

The lesson

Southern Hills is expected to throw for 7,556 yards for a par 70, about 400 yards more than when Woods won in 2007.

We’ll see water play a role over 15 holes, so precision both off the tee and with the irons will be key. Length, as always, will be an advantage, but much of that advantage will come into play on par 5s. Both are set to play well beyond 600 yards, limiting the number of players who can legitimately reach in two . Par 4s are fairly short by recent major championship standards with seven games to play under 450 yards and only one over 500 yards on the initial scorecard.

Weather, mainly wind, could come into play with gusts above 20 mph quite common. According to early forecasts, late Thursday and early Friday might catch the worst, but we all know how the weather can fluctuate during the week.

Favorites

At the top we have Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, who opened between +1000 and +1200 on various sportsbooks. Scheffler has won four in the last three months, while Rahm finally joined the table this season in his last start in Mexico.

In this +1400 to +1800 range we see Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. Spieth will be popular in this range. He took the win at Harbor Town and finished second to AT&T Byron Nelson, so the form is there. McIlroy finished second at Augusta and followed two weeks ago with a fifth-place finish at Wells Fargo.

However, of this group, this may be the best for Morikawa. He finished fifth at Augusta and had seven approach shots at Harbor Town. If it ends up playing a little tighter due to rough, creek and wind, the elite guy would do better in my eyes.

In the +2000, we have Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Hovland will be popular after playing college golf in Oklahoma, but with plenty of relief areas around the greens, we’ll see how the short game holds up against him. Schauffele and Cantlay took the win in Zurich and Schauffele followed that up with a hot weekend to finish in the top 5 at Byron Nelson.

We haven’t seen Smith in a few weeks since Zurich, and he hasn’t appeared in the leaderboards since Augusta. However, he and Scheffler are already on this week’s betting card, along with Shane Lowry, at much bigger numbers. I would not recommend them at current prices.

The mid-range

I will open here with Max Homa at +6600 on BetMGM. He was added to my card at +9000 when he entered the fray at Wells Fargo, but I still love him here. Ball striking has been settled for a few months now. He gained 10 strokes in his victory two weeks ago. He earned five more top-20 finishes in 2022 and also picked up a win in the fall.

With three wins in the last 15 months, Homa becomes one of the best players in the game as he nears the top of the leaderboard. We haven’t seen him do it in a field of this caliber yet, but he’s won at Riviera and Quail Hollow, which have held majors in the past. It shows that Homa is capable of doing it in these kinds of places.

We will also go to Matt Fitzpatrick at +4500. He’s played well all season, finishing in the top 20 in seven of his nine starts in 2022. Better form has been linked to better ball-striking. He continues to gain ground off the tee and with the approach. Both of those areas were slightly above average for him and he was playing his short game. His short game is still solid, but he’s now ranked in the top 25 in all four stroke-gain categories. He’s become a more complete player and that’s led to some solid results.

The Longshots

I have two names here, but let’s start with Keegan Bradley at +12500 on WynnBet. Wherever it takes a full game from tee to green and the winning score is likely to land around 10 under, Bradley can be a factor. He’s finished 11th or better in five of his last seven starts, so the form is there. The reason it’s been better is a slight uptick in the short game. He wins shots around the green almost every week now and has been above par with the putter in three of his last five starts.

I’m also going to Davis Riley at 200-1 on WynnBet. It’s probably more of a top 20 game, but its form is really good. He finished ninth last week and has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts. He played a hot short game in many of those results, but at Byron Nelson he was able to gain ground in all four categories – a promising sign for the rookie who has locked down a tour card for next season.

It doesn’t take much for me to bet on Riley, but like last week, I think this could be a place where he plays better than the odds suggest.

With my bets in the months leading up to this event, this pretty much concludes the end of the week. From there, we’ll focus on accessories when they become available and see if anything else catches our eye.

The PGA Championship Card

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500 (.66 units)
  • Max Homa +6600 (.5 units)
  • Keegan Bradley +12500 (.3 units)
  • Davis Riley +20000 (.1 units)

Total bet: 1.56 units

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