Weekend Box Office Predictions: Top Gun: Maverick Targets Tom Cruise’s 0M+ Opener and Potential Memorial Day Records

Weekend Box Office Predictions: Top Gun: Maverick Targets Tom Cruise’s $100M+ Opener and Potential Memorial Day Records

Photo credits: Paramount Pictures & Claudio Miranda (“Top Gun: Maverick”); 20th Century Studios (“The Bob’s Burgers Movie”)

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Memorial Day weekend has often been one of the busiest times of the year throughout the history of theatrical exhibition, and that will ring true again with the long-awaited launch of Top Gun: Maverick.

Just a year ago, the cinema recovery was in its infancy as major markets reopened in time for A Quiet Place Part IIThe exclusive May theatrical release during the May holiday – a pivotal moment on the long pandemic road to the rebound in cinema attendance.

A year later, significant progress has since been made with several blockbusters spread throughout 2021 and early 2022. Of the many films delayed over the past two years, however, few have been more prolific or significant than the follow-up to Tom Cruise at what was the biggest movie of 1986 and a role that cemented his eventual star status for decades.

Now, maverick is finally here.

Long distance tracking has been nothing short of encouraging with models pushing its trajectory higher and higher. Before the pandemic, the film was expected to become a major summer 2020 blockbuster. return trips to the theatre. since 2019, the Superior gun The sequel models near or above what it once was when tracking and marketing began nearly three years ago.

Social media footprints are through the roof compared to any previous Impossible mission movie or recent no time to dieand since pre-sales began last month, the film has steadily driven the box office goalposts higher and higher.

Despite relying on a predominantly male audience as a military action film, Cruise has always had a strong appeal to adult women, both domestically and internationally. This film’s natural appeal to Central America and military families further highlights just how widespread the interest is.

Cruise’s promise of more hands-on stunts and death-defying visual achievement is a big part of the ballooning excitement around the sequel. The buzz is compounded by ecstatic reviews from critics and industry screenings over the past month, as the film holds an incredible Rotten Tomatoes score of 97% from 189 reviews.

Where box office projections inevitably become volatile is in reality that pandemic consumer behaviors have altered the modeling of some films.

For example, strong advance sales for no time to die indicated a higher performance than what ended up coming to fruition last fall – though it’s still a healthy performer all around and falls into an arguably different category of franchise sequel. Dunes also drew robust pre-sales (mostly in premium formats), though modeling better reflected this with a fan-driven box office performance that lived up to expectations.

Top Gun: Maverick is in a whole different league, however, with advance sales rivaling that of a three- or four-quadrant movie like The Batman but much less of a presumed fan rush that would create a significant front load.

The Tuesday Early Access and Wednesday AMC Investor Connect screenings for maverickwhich will no doubt be added to the weekend total by Paramount.

Even then, however, Thursday and actual weekend sales look strong. The holidays themselves will swell on Sunday, and the film’s strong appeal for a premium screen experience means average ticket prices are skyrocketing. The buzz across the social media sphere is overwhelmingly positive, though the X-factor remains in how a sequel to a 36-year-old film will immediately appeal to younger audiences.

Potential landmarks for cruising and Memorial Day weekend

Although Cruise has never opened a movie over $100 million domestically in a single weekend (largely due to his aversion to sequels and the nature of how the business has evolved since his peak years as a constant presence on the big screen), maverick is well on its way to changing that. In fact, it’s reasonable for this sequel to approach or surpass Memorial Day weekend’s all-time highs if it stays on its current trajectory and attracts solid drop-in business with casual moviegoers.

The current archives of the Memorial? These belong to 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End with the biggest three-day ($114.7 million) and four-day ($139.8 million) openings ever for the holidays. Notably, both of these numbers exclude $13.2 million from Thursday shows. It wasn’t common for studios to include pre-midnight revenue in a movie’s weekend performance fifteen years ago, but things have changed since then.

Another tight barometer for maverick could be Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skullwhich opened a year after pirate trilogy-capper with $100.1 million in three days and $126.9 million in four days – again excluding its own Thursday gross of $25.0 million. Like that Superior gun monitoring, crystal skull was a long-awaited sequel to an iconic, star-driven pop culture property not seen since the ’80s.

At the end of their respective Memorial Day long weekends, At the end of the world raised $153 million domestically and crystal skull was close behind with $152 million.

Paramount notably publishes maverick as the widest theatrical launch in history at 4,732 locations this weekend, breaking the previous opening weekend record of 4,725 in 2019 The Lion King remake. Following the aforementioned previews on Tuesday and Wednesday, traditional previews begin at 3 p.m. on Thursday.

The studio is setting expectations at a conservative level with expectations of a $92 million four-day arc.

On the counter-programming side, Disney will distribute 20th Century Studios Bob’s Burgers movie information in approximately 3,400 locations this weekend. Social footprints are strong with the TV series’ fan base, which is also reflected in presales since they debuted last week.

Nonetheless, the main game here is aimed at millennials, Gen Z, and maybe some families with some animated comedy that might end up being somewhat loaded. Reviews are also very encouraging with a score of 93% from 46 Rotten Tomatoes reviewers.

Previews for Bob’s Burgers start at 5 p.m. on Thursday. Disney expects a four-day start between $10 million and $14 million.

Opening of the weekend ranges

Top Gun: Maverick
3-day opening weekend range: $120-145 million
4-day opening weekend range: $143–177 million

Bob’s Burgers movie information
3-day opening weekend range: $8-12 million
4-day opening weekend range: $9.5–15 million

Weekend forecast and pitch count projections

Current projections call for a 130 to 165% increase (3 days) from last weekend’s top ten total of $71.5 million. It would also represent a 17 to 36% increase (4 days) of the 2019 Memorial Day Weekend top 10 total of $173.1 million.

Film Distributer 3 Day Weekend Forecast National total projected through Sunday, May 29 3-day % change from last weekend 4 Day Weekend Forecast National total expected until Monday, May 30 Projection of the number of pitches (from Wednesday)
Top Gun: Maverick Paramount Pictures $130,000,000 $130,000,000 NEW $156,000,000 $156,000,000 4,732
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Disney and Marvel Studios $14,600,000 $368,500,000 -55% $19,000,000 $372,800,000 ~4,000
Bob’s Burgers movie information 20th Century Studios (Disney) $9,600,000 $9,600,000 NEW $12,000,000 $12,000,000 ~3,400
Downton Abbey: A New Era Focus characteristics $7,600,000 $29,500,000 -52% $9,700,000 $31,500,000 ~3,820
The villains Universal Images and DreamWorks Animation $5,100,000 $81,800,000 -17% $6,900,000 $83,600,000 ~3,200
sonic the hedgehog 2 Paramount Pictures $2,800,000 $185,400,000 -32% $3,800,000 $186,400,000 ~2,500
Everything everywhere all at once A24 $2,200,000 $56,100,000 -30% $2,900,000 $56,800,000 ~1,350
Men A24 $1,500,000 $5,900,000 -55% $1,900,000 $6,300,000 ~2,212
The lost city Paramount Pictures $1,100,000 $101,100,000 -28% $1,400,000 $101,300,000 ~1,000
Fantastic Beasts: Dumbledore’s Secrets Pictures from Warner Bros. $1,000,000 $95,000,000 -49% $1,200,000 $95,200,000 ~1,000

*All predictions are subject to revision prior to the first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

The number of theaters is updated as confirmed by the studios. The chart above does not necessarily represent the top ten, as some studios are not finalizing weekend slot counts and/or intend to report box office returns prior to release.

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