This week’s Charles Schwab Challenge has turned into a microcosm for 2022: Scottie Scheffler is in the lead and everyone else is chasing him. Scheffler will go for his fifth win of the year Sunday at Colonial Country Club after shooting a 2-under 68 on Saturday that gives him a two-shot lead over Brendon Todd and Scott Stallings.
It didn’t seem like that would be the case for much of the day. Scheffler got off to a lukewarm start with par 8- and 6-foot putts on the first two holes, and he shot a par 35 up front before rolling back. He birdied the first two from that side and finished with another at the end to secure himself a place in the final duo on Sunday afternoon.
Although it is not abnormal for Scheffler this season, he is a different experience from what he traditionally lives on this golf course. Colonial isn’t necessarily tailor-made for the defending Masters champion — he’s failed to finish in the top 50 in two starts here — but his lead is no accident. Scheffler leads the pack from tee to green, and while he’s been doing well so far, he hasn’t been an all-time warm-up through the first three rounds. In other words, that lead is sustainable on Sunday considering how far Scheffler is from a fairly average chasing pack, as well as how wonderfully he hits the golf ball.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s at stake Sunday with Scheffler in Fort Worth as he tries to continue what has been a dream season so far.
The leader
1. Scottie Scheffler (-11): Scheffler was out of the conversation for two brief days in Southern Hills a week ago when he missed the PGA Championship cut, but that blow aside, he completely owns the season. His last two months have been almost comical. It followed a victory at the Phoenix Open with a T7 at the Genesis Invitational and another win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished T55 at The Players before two more wins at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and, of course, the Masters. His T15 at AT&T Byron Nelson felt like a complete failure, which should tell you the level at which he played. Add another victory on Sunday and a career warmer suddenly turns into one of the great seasons of the last four decades.
Additionally, if he wins the $1.5 million top prize, it will be the second-richest season in PGA Tour history behind Jordan Spieth’s 2014-15 season in which he won a just over $12 million. Also note: there are still three months left in the season.
Other suitors
T2. Scott Stallings, Brendon Todd (-9)
4. Harold Varner III (-8)
T5. John Huh, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Patrick Reed (-7)
As I said, the hunting pack is not elite. Any of these guys are capable of winning a PGA Tour event, sure, but none of them will scare Scheffler. Todd actually fired the round of the day on Saturday by two shots over the rest of the field, and he did all his damage on the front nine on the course. On the contrary, it proved that there were a number of players to shoot, but the chances of one of the golfers at the top of the board doing it while catching Scheffler are not high. Data Golf gives Scheffler a 55% chance of winning this tournament.
Mito…again
Mito Pereira was the tragic character of last week. He doubled the final hole of the PGA Championship when a par would have won it and a bogey would have taken it into the playoffs. Pereira handled everything pretty well after that, which won him a lot of fans going forward, and now they have the opportunity to shoot for their guy on Sunday. Pereira is five behind Scheffler, but just three behind second as he looks to do to this standings what Justin Thomas did to him a week ago: come back from deep and get a win.
Updated odds and picks
Here’s a look at the new odds after 54 holes, via Caesars Sportsbook.
- Scottie Scheffler: -140
- Brendon Todd: 7-1
- Scott Stalling: 9-1
- Harold Varner III: 10-1
- Patrick Roseau: 22-1
- Chris Kirk: 22-1
- Cam Davis: 35-1
It’s hard to know what to do with this one. Scheffler’s number isn’t great, but I’m pretty confident he’s going to win the tournament and I don’t really trust the guys right behind him unless you double their number. I figured I’d take a flyer on Reed or Kirk at 22-1 or Cam Davis at 35-1 and see if it goes like last Sunday (it won’t, but that’s probably the game here).