When shards of a shattered comet approach Earth tonight, the chances of a meteor storm are “hit or miss”, according to NASA. But astronomers are nonetheless excited about the potential for a swarm of new shooting stars.
The agency advises skywatchers to watch the constellation of Hercules tonight (May 30-31) for signs of parts of 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 (also known as SW 3). If the bursts arrive on Earth as they should, they could create quite a spectacle in the heights of our planet’s atmosphere.
But NASA says it’s important to keep your expectations open. “We are also excited about the meteor showers,” the agency wrote in a blog post. (opens in a new tab) May 27. “But sometimes events like this don’t live up to expectations – it happened with the 2019 Alpha Monocerotid shower, for example.”
At the time, the most optimistic forecasts indicated that there could be an explosion of 400 to 1,000 meteors per hour, although the agency warned in 2019 that the show could end up being a failure. That’s what ended up happening, so NASA is urging people to “channel their inner scientists and look beyond the headlines,” to make sure they’re ready for their evening under the stars.
If you can’t see the event in person, you can watch the potential tau Herculids meteor storm online tonight with a live stream from the Virtual Telescope Project.
Related: Guide to the 2022 meteor showers: Dates and viewing tips
Some of the keys to the success of this shower will include the debris traveling at the right speed (no less than 220 mph or 321 km/h) and whether the Earth passes through the thickest part of the debris flow.
Incidentally, images from NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope suggest that at least some fragments were moving quite quickly in 2009, which is “one of the reasons astronomers were so excited,” the agency said.
Even if meteors hit our atmosphere, however, tau Herculids are slow-moving by meteor standards and will put on a faint show, NASA warned. Previously, NASA astronomer Bill Cooke also called the potential meteor shower an “all-or-nothing event” in an agency blog post.
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While there will be a new moon that will allow for the best possible viewing, and Hercules will be high in the sky and away from the thick atmosphere on the horizon, the agency stressed that there is no guarantee. “We can only hope it’s spectacular,” NASA said.
You should also consider your local weather forecast. The California coast between San Francisco and Portland, for example, should have mostly clear skies except for possible inland clouds from Humboldt Bay, according to the National Weather Service. tweeted (opens in a new tab) Sunday (May 29).
Independent meteorologist Mark Molnar has included a comprehensive analysis cloud cover map (opens in a new tab) forecast for the United States on Sunday, showing clear skies expected for most areas except parts of the northwest.
Peak time to watch is around 1 a.m. on the east coast or 10 p.m. on the west coast, according to NASA. For your best viewing, bring a lawn chair, get as far away from artificial lights as possible, and give your eyes at least 20 minutes to adjust to the dark. If you must use a flashlight or your phone, be sure to use a red filter to preserve your night vision.
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The agency suggests people look to the constellation Boötes, a little north-northwest of its bright star Arcturus, to see shooting stars. (Your culture may use different names for these regions, for which we use the International Astronomical Union nicknames.)
Don’t worry if the tau herculids don’t happen as expected, as meteor showers happen quite often. August is a good bet as the Perseids from August 11-12 are some of the brightest events of the year. Check out our upcoming meteor showers of 2022 to plan your next excursion.
If you’re hoping to photograph the tau Herculid meteor shower or want to get your gear ready for the next skywatching event, check out our best cameras for astrophotography and our best lenses for astrophotography. Read our guide on how to photograph meteors and meteor showers for more helpful tips for planning your photo shoot.
Editor’s note: If you take an amazing photo of the tau Herculids meteor shower and want to share it with Space.com readers, send your photo(s), comments, and name and location to spacephotos@space.com.
Follow Elizabeth Howell on Twitter @howellspace (opens in a new tab). Follow us on twitter @Spacedotcom (opens in a new tab) or facebook.