US Open 2022 picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win at Country Club betting ground

US Open 2022 picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win at Country Club betting ground

The 2022 US Open is fast approaching its start, so everyone in the golf world is asking a key question: Who do you choose to win at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts? A terrific field headlines the third major of the year, as the list includes most of the best professionals in the world. The US Open is set to be an epic race starting in the first round on Thursday as the USGA returns to this venue for the first time since 1988.

This year’s US Open may have a huge field, but there’s plenty of momentum behind a finite slate of names to win the national championship. Rory McIlroy makes his entrance on a radiator after defending his RBC Canadian Open title. Justin Thomas is looking to play major tournaments after winning his second such title at the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler’s game has cooled off, but he’s trying to rejoin the rarefied air with a Masters-US Open double. All that without mentioning Jon Rahm trailing and Brooks Koepka’s usual dominance in this event where he’s only been beaten by four golfers, combined, at the US Open since 2017.

And then, of course, there’s the story of Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson. What do you do with a few big names and several big winners who don’t play golf well but still make headlines by entering a major championship? With Tiger Woods absent, even more attention than usual will be focused on Mickelson in particular this week.

Add it all up and it looks like we’re expecting a wild US Open full of unexpected twists, but also plenty of familiar names at the top of the leaderboard.

So what’s going to happen this week at Brookline? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our experts at CBS Sports as we attempt to project who will win and what will happen in the third major of the season. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

US Open 2022 Expert Picks and Predictions

Kyle Porter, Senior Golf Writer

Winner — Justin Thomas (11-1): He plays the best golf of his career and has combined an ever present confidence that no one in the world is better than him with a wisdom that can only be achieved with age and experience. JT is one of the top three iron players on the planet, and his hot putter has translated into wins and near wins over the past two months. That’s not going to change this week as he even shoots Jordan Spieth with three career major championships.

Sleeper — Davis Riley (60-1): Playing quietly on one of the best golf courses in the world, Riley’s swing smells like one who could win a US Open trophy. What he does best (smash irons) is exactly what you need to do best in major leagues and especially the US Open. Five consecutive top 20 finishes for Riley (including the PGA Championship) that I expect him to make six.

Top 10 Locks — Brooks Koepka: I bet on US Open Brooks instead of “rest of the year” Brooks. He finished 1-1-2-T4 consecutively in this tournament and understands his rhythms perhaps better than anyone in history. Does he play well? Not really, but he missed three of the four cups before last year’s US Open and then almost won it.

Star Who Definitely Won’t Win — Dustin Johnson: The reasons here are many. The first is that he doesn’t play golf particularly well. He also hasn’t had a win since the 2020 Masters and has only one top 10 finish in a PGA Tour stroke play event so far this year. Plus, this week has been such a circus that even DJ has to feel it. He’s a spearhead for rival golf league LIV, and though his exterior seems impervious, the din has gotten so loud I’m not sure he can even ignore it.

Surprise prediction – Thomas and Rory McIlroy duel on Sunday: I don’t know if it’s a surprise that two of the top five golfers in the world are fighting for one of the four most coveted titles, but the dream scenario (a redux of the Canadian Open from last weekend) rarely plays like this. It would be the perfect end to a fortnight of golf madness.

Phil Mickelson’s prediction – Relevance has already passed this week: We’ve already heard what we’ll be getting from Mickelson this week. He’s not playing golf well right now, and he’s definitely not going to qualify for the US Open. He hasn’t finished in the top 25 of this tournament since coming close to winning in 2013.

Lowest lap: 65 (-5)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Sunday winner score: 70 (E)

Patrick McDonald, golf writer

Winner — Patrick Cantlay (25-1): The major championship record is poor, but strip out his missed cuts to the PGA Championship and Players Championship, and Cantlay has been amazing this year. In those 10 starts, he’s had a win, two playoff losses, three top fives and another top 10. I love the reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year when we put him on a pitch of golf where prowess off the tee will be influential. in determining the winner. He’s got the full package, and it’s time for him to get rid of the monkey.

Sleeper — Corey Conners (45-1): He was a semi-finalist at the 2013 US Amateur, which is fine, but the current state of the Canadian game is tailor-made for a US Open. Accurate off the start and deadly with his irons, Conners has seen an increase in his short game numbers over the past three months. If he can convert enough of those crucial stops up and down, he should be there on Sunday.

Top 10 Locks — Shane Lowry: Lowry’s first taste of a major championship was the 2016 US Open at Oakmont. Since then, I think his game is perfect for the toughest scrutiny in golf. He is in the midst of some of the best form of his life, and the consistency with which he hits fairways and greens in regulation will allow him to be a factor at the Country Club.

Star Who Won’t Win — Cameron Smith: Accuracy hasn’t mattered too much at the recent US Open, but this year will be different. If this theory holds true, the Aussie will struggle as he regularly loses shots off the tee due to his capriciousness with the driver in hand. Smith has played the first two majors of the year, so it comes with a high level of risk, but I could see the world No.6 playing defense early on.

Surprise prediction – Rory McIlroy misses the cut: I have McIlroy missing the cut one in five times, so there’s some value in his prop if you choose to indulge. The four-time major champion was a runner-up at the Masters, first-round leader at the PGA Championship and all signs point to him grabbing fifth place at the Country Club. It’s been a grueling week in Canada, and while his game is starting to look like 2014, the occasional mental lapse and inaccuracy off the tee could cause him problems.

Phil Mickelson Prediction – Missed Cup Despite Positive Fan Response: With two spicy takes, we now move on to something much more bland. The perception around Phil isn’t great at the moment, but I expect Boston fans to welcome him with open arms — aside from the occasional rowdy. Despite that, let’s remember that he is a 52-year-old who has only played three competitive rounds in the last four months and has shown considerable rust in London.

Lowest lap: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Sunday winner score: 70 (E)

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Kyle Boone, writer

Winner — Cameron Smith (18-1): Brookline is going to demand precisely what Smith can bring: a killer short game for its lightning-fast greens and precision off the tees for the many blind shots golfers will make this week. Smith is third on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained with the approach and 11th in strokes gained with the putter. If he plays his game, he’ll be in the game, and we’ve already seen him hang out with the big dogs this season with wins at the Players Championship and Sentry Open as well as top-five finishes at the Masters and RSM. Classic. .

Sleeper — Mito Pereira (55-1): With eight top-25 finishes in 21 events this season, Pereira, 27, is quietly preparing for a stellar year in what is effectively his rookie campaign. He has finished in the top 10 three times, including twice in his last three outings. One ended in heartache, as he held the lead as he walked to the PGA Championship hole No. 72 before giving up the lead thanks to a failed drive. Nonetheless, Pereira is a name that could – but shouldn’t – be overlooked this week given his play so far. At 55-1, he qualifies as one of the most capable underdog contenders in the field at this year’s US Open.

Top 10 Locks — Rory McIlroy: Looks like this week is gearing up to be a crowning glory for Rory. Along with a win at the Canadian Open last weekend, he’s finished in the top 10 in three of his last four events: the Masters, the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship. At this point, it’s no fluke: McIlroy has found his form and strikes at the right time. He is the favorite for a reason this week and finishing in the top 10 should be the floor.

Star Who Definitely Won’t Win — Dustin Johnson: If you haven’t heard of the news lately, DJ these days can be a bit, well, distracted. He became the first major Domino to join the LIV Golf Tour for $125 million, and he later withdrew his PGA Tour membership. There’s a lot going on in his world. On the course, there are reasons to believe that the former world number 1 will not win. He finished six shots behind the leader in LIV’s first event, which featured a weak field. And in the PGA Tour season, he’s missed more cuts than top 10s this year.

Surprise prediction – Sam Burns finishes in the top five: Burns is 25-1 to win outright. Don’t hate those odds at all, but a top five is a much safer bet. Since winning the Valspar Championship in March, he’s had two top-five finishes and another win (at Charles Schwab two weeks ago). He also enters the weekend with a T4 at the Canadian Open where he was able to hold on to Thomas, Shane Lowry and Scottie Scheffler.

Prediction of Phil Mickelson – Missed Cup: Lefty shot 10 in three innings last weekend, his first competitive action since a months-long hiatus that began in February. There’s no reason to expect him to do anything other than miss the cut. Even before his absence, he missed cuts in his last two outings. He’s a long way from regaining the same form that helped him win the PGA Championship in stunning fashion a year ago.

Lowest lap: 64 (-6)
Winning score: 267 (-13)
Sunday winner score: 68 (-2)

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